EURNZD (1D) – XABCD Double Drive Long (Target 1 Hit; Watching for Continuation)

Oct 6, 2025
2 min read

*Long from the PCZ (100%–78.6%) played perfectly; Target 1 zone tagged. Now monitoring pullback/continuation structure for the next leg.*

📌 Pattern Overview

Pattern Type: XABCD Double Drive (Bullish) – D completed at the PCZ and triggered an upside reversal.
Asset: EURNZD
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Trade Bias: Bullish – Target 1 achieved; looking for constructive pullback to reload or continuation signals above reclaimed levels.

🔑 Key Levels

PCZ (entry zone): 1.9705 (100%) – 1.9759 (78.6%) → long executed inside this range.
Reaction lows: ~1.9663–1.9680 (failed breakdowns around D pivot).
Target 1 block: 2.0215 (78.6%) – 2.0376 (100%) → reached.
Current context: Price backing off from Target 1 after a strong impulse leg; prior breakout shelf near 1.995–2.005 now key support.

📐 Technical Confirmation

Double-Drive confluence: Two downside drives into D with symmetry to AB; C failed to make a higher high → compression into PCZ.
Fib alignment: D completion at 100%/78.6% cluster; rally extended into 78.6%–100% of the upside projection (Target 1).
Structure: Bullish market structure flip above B; momentum expansion candles on breakout validate the reversal.

⚡️ Price Action & Trade Setup

Base case: Look for a shallow pullback toward 2.005–1.995 (breakout shelf / prior resistance) to form a higher-low.
Continuation trigger: Acceptance back above 2.0215 opens a re-test of 2.0376 and a measured push toward extended targets if momentum rebuilds.
Alternative: Deeper retrace into 1.985–1.975 is acceptable only if buyers defend quickly; loss of 1.970 would neutralize the immediate bullish continuation.

🧠 Market Sentiment

Cross-flows favored EUR strength vs NZD during the breakout leg; follow-through likely if risk sentiment remains stable and NZD does not receive outsized positive surprises. Momentum cool-off after Target 1 is typical—watch reaction at the first support.

📊 Next Potential Movements

Upside path:
- Reclaim 2.0215 → 2.0376 (Target 1 top) → extension toward 2.05–2.06 if trend persists.
Downside risk:
- Fade to 2.005–1.995 support; loss of 1.995 invites 1.985–1.975 test.

🛡 Risk Management

For fresh longs:
- Entry: Pullback hold above 1.995–2.005, or breakout-reclaim above 2.0215.
- Invalidation: Daily close below 1.970–1.975 (PCZ floor).
- Stops: Tuck below the chosen support (tighter: 1.992; conservative: 1.968).
- Profit-taking: Scale at 2.0215 → 2.0376; leave a runner only if momentum/structure remains constructive. Risk ≤ 1% per idea.

🚀 Conclusion & Final Insight

The XABCD Double Drive from the PCZ delivered a clean measured rally to Target 1. Now it’s about patience: either buy the first constructive pullback into the breakout shelf or rejoin on strength through 2.0215. The edge remains with buyers while the PCZ floor is respected.